2024 Election and Cannabis Legalization Guide

I didn't have time to put together an original contribution but I wanted to share this great article with our customers. As a youth of the 80's and 90's, I never imagined we would make so much progress on improving access to Hemp and Cannabis for medicinal and recreational use. It's a good reminder that persistence can affect change even when faced with stubborn resistance. 

JG

Reposted from Gangaprenuer.com for educational purposes.

As the 2024 election approaches, BGM recognizes the pivotal role it could play in shaping the future of cannabis legalization across the United States. Matthew Schweich, the Executive Director of the Marijuana Policy Project and a prominent cannabis reform advocate, offered insightful commentary on the potential impacts of the election on cannabis policy. Schweich’s observations reveal that no matter the outcome of the election on November 5, significant developments for the cannabis industry are likely, but challenges remain. In this blog, we’ll delve into Schweich’s key points and explore the election scenarios that could reshape the future of cannabis legalization in the United States.

In this blog, we explore Schweich’s perspective on the possible election outcomes and what they could mean for cannabis businesses nationwide. We share our perspectives and provide insight into the ever-changing cannabis industry landscape that BGM helps clients navigate every day.

Bipartisan Support for Legalization: A Milestone in 2024

One of the most striking aspects of the 2024 election, according to Schweich, is that both major presidential candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties support cannabis legalization. This bipartisan backing marks a significant shift in U.S. political dynamics. As Schweich remarked, “That’s something that I think would have shocked a lot of people 20 years ago, probably even ten years ago, to have the Democrat and the Republican both supporting this policy.”

This widespread support, he noted, reflects a dramatic change in public opinion and political establishment views over the past decade. Just three elections ago, in 2012, no states had legalized cannabis for adult use. Fast forward to 2024, and 24 states have fully legalized cannabis, a clear indication of the cannabis reform movement’s influence and persistence.

Former President Donald Trump’s residency in Florida also played a pivotal role in eliciting his stance on cannabis legalization, as the issue was placed directly in front of him via a statewide initiative. This direct interaction between local politics and federal influence demonstrates the growing importance of cannabis as a national issue, rather than just a state-by-state battle.

The Impact of Rescheduling: Step Forward, But Not Far Enough

In recent months, the Biden administration initiated the process of rescheduling cannabis to Schedule III. This move is significant, but Schweich is quick to point out that it falls short of what the cannabis industry needs. “I think it should be descheduled entirely,” he commented. “Even as a Schedule III drug, it’s going to be considered more dangerous than Xanax.” Schweich emphasized that this classification remains problematic because, in his view, cannabis poses far less danger and addiction risk compared to certain other Schedule III substances.

However, he acknowledged that rescheduling would offer some relief for cannabis businesses, particularly about the burdensome 280E tax regulation. If cannabis is reclassified under Schedule III, businesses could potentially start deducting standard operating expenses, significantly easing financial strains in the industry. Schweich noted, “That’s a huge potential impact, but the cannabis industry knows that more \work needs to be done at the federal level.”

The Role of Federal Legislation: The Next Major Milestone

While rescheduling cannabis is a positive step, Schweich is adamant that the next significant development for the cannabis movement must come in the form of comprehensive federal legislation. Such a law would address lingering issues related to federal policy, mainly banking restrictions and tax regulations that have hampered the cannabis industry for years. The cannabis sector remains largely cash-based due to the lack of access to traditional financial services, which Schweich described as a significant obstacle to growth and safety.

Looking ahead to the potential election outcomes, Schweich mapped out four possible scenarios, ranking them in order of the likelihood for advancing cannabis legislation:

1. Democrats Control the White House and Congress: According to Schweich, this scenario offers the most promising path forward for federal cannabis reform. Suppose Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, and the Democrats retain the House and Senate control. In that case, there’s a strong chance of passing a comprehensive federal bill that could legalize cannabis nationwide. Schweich believes this would be the most favorable outcome for the cannabis industry, as it would provide the political alignment needed to push through significant reform.
2. Republicans Control the White House and Congress: Schweich ranked this as the second most likely scenario for achieving federal reform. He noted that a Republican-controlled Congress and White House under former President Trump could create a more functional system of government, allowing for more streamlined policymaking. However, Trump’s views on cannabis differ significantly from those of many Republican members of Congress, which could complicate the passage of federal cannabis legislation.
3. Split Government with Trump as President: Schweich expressed cautious optimism in this case. He explained that a Trump presidency with a split Congress could still result in some federal cannabis reform, mainly if Republicans see political advantage in supporting the issue. However, Schweich believes that partisan politics might get in the way, limiting the likelihood of significant progress.
4. Split Government with Harris as President: Schweich ranked this scenario as the least likely to result in federal cannabis reform. If Harris wins the presidency, but faces a Republican-controlled Congress, Schweich predicts widespread gridlock. “I think if Vice President Harris wins the Presidential election and Republicans control Congress, they’re going to wage a war against her that has nothing to do with cannabis,” he warned. The deeply entrenched partisanship could prevent any meaningful cannabis legislation from passing.

The Filibuster: A Key Obstacle

One of the significant barriers to federal cannabis reform, according to Schweich, is the filibuster in the Senate. With the filibuster requiring 60 votes to pass most legislation, many policy efforts die before they even have a chance to gain momentum. “The filibuster is the enemy of policymaking,” Schweich stated. “It is a mutation of the legislative process in Congress and kills everything.”

Schweich argued that the filibuster prevents thoughtful, well-crafted laws from being passed and hinders progress on issues like cannabis legalization, which enjoys broad public support but faces institutional roadblocks.

State-Level Initiatives: An Optimistic Outlook

Beyond the federal landscape, Schweich is optimistic about the success of state-level cannabis initiatives. In the 2024 election, Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota are all expected to vote on cannabis legalization. Schweich is cautiously optimistic about all three states, particularly noting that turnout will be crucial. Florida, however, presents a unique challenge due to its 60% threshold for passing ballot initiatives, which Schweich described as “difficult in any state on any issue.”

Nevertheless, Schweich predicted that all three states have a strong chance of passing legalization measures, which would mark yet another milestone in the steady march toward national cannabis legalization.

The Future of the Cannabis Industry Hangs in the Balance

As the 2024 election looms, the future of cannabis policy in the United States remains uncertain but full of potential. Schweich’s insights highlight both the progress made and the obstacles that still remain and stand in the way. While rescheduling cannabis is a step in the right direction, comprehensive federal legislation remains the ultimate goal. Whether that goal is achieved will depend on the outcome of this election and the ability of lawmakers to overcome partisan gridlock.